The insufficiently long count

As an occasional amateur futurist I'd like to touch on a subject that you'll find coming up with increasing and wearying frequency between now and Dec 22nd, 2012. The ancient Mayan calendar or the "long count" - which, thanks mainly to the addled rantings of von Daniken is accorded some sort of mystical significance by the sort of people who are susceptible to such things - happens to come to an end on Dec 21st, 2012. Thus, goes the theory, the world will end that day. Of this, Laurie Pycroft writes

"The Mayans were primitive folk who didn't know what a star was, and it's absurd to think that they had any kind of special knowledge. I'm sure lots of interesting and impressive things are going to happen in 2012, but the end of the world is not one of them."

For my part I simply note that I took great delight, when I visited the Yucatan peninsula a few years ago, in snorkelling out beyond what the Mayans considered the end of the world - to whit, the horizon visible from the Atlantic coast. It felt...mildly intrepid. I think the fact that this feat is replicable by any able-bodied modern human with ten dollars worth of snorkelling gear tells you everything you need to know about the credibility of the ancient Mayan position vis-a-vis the imminence of armageddon.

Comments

[Craig McGill]

I remember visiting Chichen Itza and thinking how could they be so accurate when the must have had a different calendar...but gags aside, I think I'll have a friendly bet with Grant Morrison on this one...

[Rick]

They may not have known what a star was, but I'm sure they would have been able - upon reaching December 2012 - to declare it 'Cycle 2' and continue as before.

The earliest Mayans presumably had no expectation their civilisation could make it 5,000 years anyway (even Hitler dreamt small, with his thousand year reich). As it happens, the Mayans were not wrong.