Googlebomb

Dave Winer speculates as to how we’ll know that bubble2.0 has popped: “Google stock will crash. That's how we'll know”, because “Web 2.0 is nothing more than an aftermarket for Google. Startups slicing little bits of Google's P/E ratio, acting as sales reps for Google ads, and getting great multiples for the revenue they generate by fostering the creation of new UGC to place ads on.” Alan Mutter adds some meat to the hypothesis, speculating that the Google bomb will come because some percentage of the AdWords clicks that account for almost all of Google’s revenue are fraudulent. The Economist estimates between 10% and 50%, Mutter 35%. And finally Thomas Hawk writes at SeekingAlpha that Google is hyped out; that bullish analysts, with a single exception, are pricing it for perfection; and that if Google does sneeze “the collateral damage that impacts the entire Web 2.0 could hurt a lot of great companies and businesses.”