So train overcrowding at rush hour is going to get worse, says a new report from MPs, and the Telegraph reminds us of the depth of the problem by pointing out that the conditions endured by commuters would be illegal if inflicted on animals. Indeed. Apparently everyone wants to travel at the same time on a network with finite capacity and insist that prices cannot rise (indeed, every rise is met with howls of protest). What is left?
There are several possible solutions. One is to increase supply, which according to the report funds have not been made availble to achieve. Another is to increase ticket prices until the demand for seats (or for standing room) falls to the level of the existing supply, which would admittedly create both economic and political friction as many people were simply priced out of turning up for work. A third is to simply hope that telecommuting becomes more popular, and a fourth is for companies, possibly obliged by new legislation, to allow thier employees to perform their duties either during the hours they choose or from home; the former solution would of course ease overcrowding as some people chose to start at 5am or noon, the latter would have obvious environmental benefits as the total number of journeys fell.
More sensible would be a variable pricing model. Everyone chooses to travel at rush hour because of custom, habit and the requirements of employers. Network effects mean that some people must travel at certain times - salespeople must be at their desks when there are people at the other end of the phone to sell to etc. But allowing train companies to vary pricing according to different levels of demand at different times would strongly incentivise commuters to discuss their own hours with their colleagues and/or employers as prices tripled at rush hour. The trains are packed beyond reasonable comfort at 8.30am - they are empty by half ten. The half eight train should clearly cost more, until a more sensible equilibirum is achieved as more people realise that actually their desk job can be done just as well in the afternoons - or better still, from a desk at home rather than a desk an hour away.
(Picture from Endlisnis on Flickr)
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